As the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics moves into the knockout rounds, the United States is a strong favorite to win the gold medal, with betting odds making them a substantial favorite. The Americans aim for their fifth consecutive gold medal.
Eight teams will compete in the quarterfinals on Tuesday, with the U.S. facing Brazil at 3:30 p.m. ET. While the Americans are heavily favored, several teams pose potential challenges. Here’s a look at five teams that could present the biggest threats to Team USA, ranked by their potential to cause an upset in a single-elimination scenario.
1. Canada
Gold Medal Odds: +750
Canada has emerged as a significant contender, having navigated a tough group stage undefeated, with a +20 point differential. With a roster full of NBA talent, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and R.J. Barrett, Canada is a formidable opponent. Despite concerns about size compared to the U.S., the depth of Canada’s roster and the potential impact of players like Jamal Murray could pose a serious threat. Their defensive capabilities, with players like Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks, could also challenge the U.S. on the perimeter.
2. Germany
Gold Medal Odds: +850
Germany, the 2023 World Cup champions, has shown impressive form with standout performances from Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner. They have a well-rounded team with significant interior presence from Daniel Theis and Moe Wagner. Germany’s balanced attack and defensive capabilities make them a strong contender, and they could potentially face Canada in the semifinals, which would provide a clearer picture of their threat level.
3. Serbia
Gold Medal Odds: +3400
Serbia’s chances largely hinge on the performance of Nikola Jokic, the NBA star who can dominate a game. Despite a heavy loss to the U.S. in group play, Serbia’s potential to cause an upset rests on Jokic’s ability to influence the game and if other key players like Bogdan Bogdanovic can contribute significantly. However, Serbia’s depth without Jokic remains a concern.
4. Australia
Gold Medal Odds: +7500
Australia, which won bronze at the last Olympics, has a solid team led by Josh Giddey and Patty Mills. The Boomers are known for their strong perimeter shooting and depth, with players like Dyson Daniels and Jock Landale providing valuable contributions. Although they would need to overcome Serbia in their quarterfinal match to reach the semifinals, Australia’s capability to create matchup problems for the U.S. could make them a potential threat.
5. France
Gold Medal Odds: +4600
France has struggled in the tournament, falling short of expectations with a narrow win over Japan and a loss to Germany. Despite having talent like Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, France’s inconsistent performance and lackluster guard play have limited their chances. They would need a perfect game and significant defensive dominance to challenge the U.S., which remains unlikely given their current form.
As the tournament progresses, these teams could offer varying degrees of challenge to Team USA, but the Americans remain the clear favorites heading into the knockout stages.
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